As the countdown to the Super Bowl begins, so too does the age-old American custom of proclaiming the NFL to be rigged. Enthusiastic bar patrons, AM radio pundits, and internet forum aficionados all seem to convene around the shared belief: it’s all orchestrated.

In the previous year, the most captivating conspiracy theory suggested that the Pentagon conspired to manipulate the entire 2024 NFL season to ensure the Chiefs would reach the Super Bowl, thus allowing Taylor Swift to bolster Democratic chances in the upcoming elections. (Whoops.) This year’s theorists have traded in their elaborate notions for something more straightforward: a money trail that leads to a guaranteed Chiefs victory at the Super Bowl. While their argument is persuasive, it doesn’t hold water.

Reasons Behind Alleged Super Bowl Manipulation

The prevailing viewpoint among conspiracy enthusiasts suggests that the NFL rigged the 2025 season for the Kansas City Chiefs purely for financial gain. If the Chiefs had suffered a playoff defeat, the league would have missed out on significant revenue—less merchandise sold with Patrick Mahomes’ name, lower advertising rates during Super Bowl broadcasts, diminished bets from gambling platforms, and reduced hot dog sales in New Orleans. The logic is clear: a successful Chiefs performance equates to greater profits.

Can Football Games Even Be Manipulated?

While it might not resemble the manipulation seen in professional wrestling, it is indeed plausible to influence the outcome of an NFL game. This could occur without the need for players, coaches, or team executives to agree on a preordained outcome. A small number of corrupt referees could theoretically sway a game.

The parity among NFL teams (especially in the Super Bowl context) means games frequently hinge on critical decisions made by officials. The intricacies of football rules allow for a wide range of interpretations—like defining a “catch.” The vagueness of certain terms lends a significant amount of discretion to referees; for example, to verify a catch, a player must “perform actions typical of the game,” such as securing the ball or making a calculated move. The same interpretative latitude applies to numerous other calls, including spotting the ball accurately or assessing penalties for holding and pass interference. Ultimately, this opens opportunities for manipulation.

Indicators of Referee Bias Favoring Kansas City

In a closely contested playoff matchup this weekend between the Chiefs and the Buffalo Bills, several dubious calls raised eyebrows:

Recall the previously mentioned definition of a “catch”? This instance certainly does not qualify:

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It was either an incomplete pass or an interception.

In terms of ball placement, confusion arose as one referee awarded the Bills a first down despite the close call. Even after a precise review, the ruling favored the Chiefs. This critical decision was one of several similar incidents throughout that game.

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This isn’t an isolated incident. Throughout the season, many fans noted that tackles aimed at Mahomes were often deemed “roughing the passer,” even when they seemed innocuous. A famous example involved a comical exaggeration of contact during the Chiefs’ match against the Houston Texans:

Throughout these recent games, the Chiefs have astonishingly avoided a single “roughing the passer” call over their last nine matches, while their opponents have been penalized six times.

Counterarguments Against NFL Manipulation for the Chiefs’ Benefit

Observing the Chiefs’ successes this season could easily lead to the assumption that something nefarious is afoot. The series of close encounters where the Chiefs snatched victory, often aided by dubious officiating, suggests foul play—11 wins by a slim margin in a single season could certainly give that impression.

However, to a Chiefs supporter, these are signs of skill—the team is led by a possibly legendary quarterback, backed by an exceptional coach. Last-minute wins highlight their poise under pressure, which is often a product of strategic time management. The spate of roughing penalties? A clever tactic; Mahomes employs theatrics because it’s permitted and effective, especially given that he’s a mobile player susceptible to more contact.

Humans inherently lean toward narratives that affirm their beliefs while sidelining contradicting evidence. It’s not unlikely that passionate sports fans are not evaluating their biases with the necessary scrutiny. How often do roughing penalties occur against other mobile quarterbacks? While some individuals might be keeping track, it generally doesn’t capture fan interest.

Always Evaluate the Motive

The premise that the NFL could orchestrate a season’s outcome underlies the skepticism of many. This conjecture overlooks the fact that franchises are independently owned by a varied group of millionaires and billionaires, each holding significant sway within the league. These owners would likely reject any rigging unless the scheme benefitted their own teams.

Regarding storytelling, it’s hard to believe the NFL thinks football viewers eagerly anticipate yet another Chiefs Super Bowl win. There’s a lack of supportive evidence to indicate that the narrative they spin is well-received, as winning three consecutive championships would be far less captivating than an underdog story involving a rookie-led team prevailing against odds, or, perhaps, “Wow, the Detroit Lions are actually competitive this season?”

The conversations usually converge back to the officials. The infamous 2007 NBA betting scandal involved a single corrupt referee managing games he officiated, not an ongoing scheme favoring one team. A widespread conspiracy to support the Chiefs or any franchise would be complex and necessitate many moving parts to align seamlessly, making it implausible. It’s reasonable to assume that someone would eventually come forth with the details.

Referees Are Human Beings

Just like anyone else, referees possess inherent biases and can err. It is plausible that these officials are somewhat inclined to make calls benefiting the league’s most iconic player, particularly given his propensity for dramatic reactions. Yet, whether this is a deliberate act of manipulation remains doubtful.

Typically, NFL referees work their way up from high school sports and, if fortunate enough to reach the league, earn around a quarter of a million dollars annually. This is a position that inspires loyalty; most would wish to maintain their standing. Referees, like many professionals, likely find pride in performing effectively and would be unlikely to jeopardize their careers for short-lived benefits. As Mike Pereira, a prominent rules analyst for Fox Sports, summarizes: “The notion that officials demonstrate favoritism towards any team or individual is absurd. No one wants to lose their job; the aim is to get it right—those who doubt this lack an understanding of officiating from experience.”